Possible scenario
Talks Stall
18% Chance
A realistic downside is that the parties remain apart on who moves first: U.S. sanctions relief, Iranian nuclear and regional assurances, or Hormuz implementation. This would not necessarily end the channel, but it would reprice some of the diplomatic optimism built since June.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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