Possible scenario
Limited De-escalation Deal
30% Chance
Munir’s Tehran trip could unlock a narrow, practical arrangement focused on maritime safety, prisoner issues, or oil-sanctions enforcement rather than a grand bargain. This would fit the incremental pattern since the June Pakistan-mediated peace deal and the September UN talks on Hormuz terms.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -1.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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