Possible scenario
Limited Retaliatory Exchange
28% Chance
Israel responds with a limited strike on a Hezbollah-linked launch site or observation post in southern Lebanon. Hezbollah may answer with a small volley or drone launch, but both sides remain below the threshold of sustained conflict.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.4%
- Consumer Services -0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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