Possible scenario
Houthi Retaliation
31% Chance
The Houthis answer the Taiz losses with missiles, drones, or maritime attacks to restore deterrence after the earlier Riyadh strike. This is a high-risk path because the movement has shown willingness to hit Saudi targets and pressure Red Sea shipping.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Copper Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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