Possible scenario
Coalition Air Campaign
20% Chance
Saudi Arabia and Gulf partners increase air and intelligence support to the PLC after the Taiz fighting intensifies. The goal is to degrade Houthi missile stocks and slow the use of externally supplied weapons, but the risk of civilian casualties and retaliation rises.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.4%
- Consumer Services -0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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