Possible scenario
Watered-Down Compromise
25% Chance
Business groups, wealthy families, and parts of Magyar’s coalition push for exemptions before the tax starts next year. The government keeps the political symbolism of taxing the ultra-rich but reduces the expected revenue take.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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