Possible scenario
Legal-Political Challenge
20% Chance
Fidesz and affected business interests challenge the tax on constitutional, property-rights, and valuation grounds. The dispute becomes an early test of Magyar’s ability to govern after ending Viktor Orbán’s long rule.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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