Possible scenario
Targeted US Enforcement
38% Chance
The Treasury Secretary's wording is translated into a narrower enforcement track rather than an immediate economy-wide rupture. The most likely path is interagency guidance, possible BIS coordination, and pressure on cloud providers and model labs to document whether Chinese rivals used restricted outputs or API access.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -1.3%
- Telecommunications -0.2%
- Industrials -0.2%
- Business Services -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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