Possible scenario
Managed Dialogue Continues
27% Chance
Despite the theft accusation, Washington and Beijing preserve the AI best-practices channel started earlier in 2026. Both sides have incentives to avoid a complete breakdown because safety standards, cloud routing, and model evaluation protocols remain shared concerns.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.7%
- Business Services +0.3%
Tickers
- NVDA+0.9%
- +0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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