Possible scenario
Limited Military Retaliation
26% Chance
Washington responds to the scale of vessel strikes with limited military action against IRGC Navy assets, coastal radars, missile batteries, or drone-launch sites. The intent is deterrence rather than regime-change war, but escalation risks rise sharply.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +5.2%
- Technology
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-2.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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