Possible scenario
Diplomatic Pause Emerges
18% Chance
A diplomatic channel produces a temporary stand-down, likely involving Oman, Qatar, the United Nations, and indirect U.S.-Iranian messages. Tehran may accept a pause to extract concessions, claim enforcement success, or avoid a direct U.S. strike.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +2.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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