Possible scenario
Convoys Contain Crisis
42% Chance
The most likely path is a tense but bounded maritime crisis in which the United States, United Kingdom, France, and Gulf partners expand naval escorts without immediately striking Iranian territory. Iran continues to frame the attacks as maritime enforcement, but avoids mass casualties that would force a larger U.S. response.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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