Possible scenario
Trade Routes Shift
20% Chance
Rather than stopping the flow, traders may reroute product movements through Chinese ports, ship-to-ship transfers or non-G7 service providers. This would reduce South Korea’s direct exposure while preserving Russian access to some fuel supplies despite the sanctions architecture.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.4%
- Industrials -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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