Possible scenario
Story Mostly Fades
40% Chance
Paxton and allies argue the security detail was justified by threats tied to his office and Senate campaign visibility. With Trump already invested in the race, most Republican voters treat the report as another media attack rather than a disqualifying scandal.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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