Possible scenario
Cuts Are Softened
20% Chance
The government may decide that full confrontation is too risky and negotiate a smaller package with centrists, LR, or moderate Socialists. This reduces immediate political risk but weakens the fiscal message sent after Scope’s downgrade.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.4%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.3%
- Industrials -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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