Bypass Succeeds

The most likely outcome is that the Élysée uses Article 49.3 or equivalent procedural tools to advance the 2027 budget cuts despite lacking a stable majority in the National Assembly. Opposition parties protest the move, but a no-confidence motion fails because Les Républicains or centrist deputies avoid triggering another collapse.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.