Possible scenario
Job Shock Deepens
20% Chance
AI-related displacement accelerates faster than public retraining programs can absorb, especially in services-heavy labor markets. Political pressure rises as governments confront higher unemployment claims, outsourcing disruption, and weaker confidence among middle-income workers.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Copper Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Business Services -1.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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