Possible scenario
AI Rules Tighten
25% Chance
Policymakers conclude that retraining alone is insufficient and begin discussing obligations on large AI deployers. The most likely versions are disclosure requirements, transition-fund contributions, and public-procurement rules rather than outright limits on automation.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.4%
- Business Services -0.4%
- Finance -0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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