Possible scenario
Disruption Outruns Release
28% Chance
The Spanish draw proves too small relative to the scale of the Iran-war disruption and European refinery stress. Markets begin to treat strategic reserves as a bridge rather than a solution, keeping upward pressure on crude and distillates.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.6%
- Consumer Services -1.2%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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