Possible scenario
Sale Moves Forward
45% Chance
The Trump administration decides that reversing course would signal weakness and proceeds with the delayed $14 billion Taiwan arms package. Beijing protests and may impose targeted sanctions, but Washington frames the sale as consistent with the Taiwan Relations Act.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.8%
- Technology -0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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