Possible scenario
Negotiated Delay
25% Chance
The administration keeps the deal alive but delays congressional notification while it tests whether Beijing will offer concessions on trade, fentanyl enforcement, or military communications. This outcome lets both sides avoid an immediate rupture without fully abandoning Taiwan.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -0.4%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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