Possible scenario
Chinese Retaliation Escalates
18% Chance
Beijing concludes that public pressure alone will not stop the sale and moves to impose costs on Washington and Taipei. Actions stay below a blockade threshold but include sanctions, military exercises, and tighter pressure on companies with China exposure.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Copper Down
- US dollar Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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