Possible scenario
Tax Compromise Emerges
18% Chance
Democratic legislators try to defuse the governor race by delaying or narrowing the billionaire-tax proposal. This preserves the party's revenue message while reducing the risk of billionaire flight and broader business opposition.
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.2%
- Technology +0.2%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.1%
- Business Services +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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