Possible scenario
Volatility Fades
30% Chance
The volatility spike proves to be a positioning event rather than the start of a broader rates shock. Investors step back into Treasuries at higher yields, credit spreads stabilize, and equities recover some duration-related losses.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology +1.5%
- Utilities +1.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+1.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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