Possible scenario
Risk-Off Rally
25% Chance
The jump in rates volatility spills into broader risk sentiment, prompting investors to buy Treasuries for safety despite the inflation backdrop. In this outcome, yields fall because risk aversion overwhelms the earlier higher-rate impulse.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Bitcoin Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -2.3%
- Technology
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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