Possible scenario
Bear-Steepening Continues
35% Chance
Treasury volatility remains elevated because investors keep repricing the path of Federal Reserve policy and the term premium. The recent CPI, hawkish Fed commentary, and the prior jump in the 10-year yield make a further yield-led risk adjustment the most likely near-term path.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -1.5%
- Utilities -1.5%
- Finance
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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