Possible scenario
Russian Adaptation
30% Chance
Russia responds by changing tactics rather than abandoning jet Shaheds. Moscow mixes faster drones with decoys, low-altitude routes, electronic warfare, and larger salvos to test whether Ukraine can scale its new interceptor quickly enough.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.3%
- Utilities -0.1%
- Technology +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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