Possible scenario
Cuts Proceed Gradually
45% Chance
Hegseth’s Pentagon implements a staged reduction in headquarters staff, senior officer billets, and administrative programs while explicitly protecting chaplaincy and religious accommodation budgets. Congress objects at the margins but does not immediately block the restructuring in the next defense funding vehicle.
Secondary impacts
- Business Services -1.0%
- Industrials +0.4%
Tickers
- BAH-2.1%
- SAIC-1.7%
- CACI-1.3%
- LDOS-1.1%
- +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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