Possible scenario
Congressional Pushback Builds
30% Chance
Democrats and some defense-state Republicans challenge the process, arguing that Hegseth is bypassing normal budget channels and politicizing Pentagon personnel decisions. The fight shifts to the NDAA, appropriations riders, and inspector general reviews rather than an immediate market-moving crisis.
Secondary impacts
- Business Services -0.4%
- Industrials -0.3%
Tickers
- BAH-1.1%
- SAIC-0.4%
- CACI-0.4%
- LDOS-0.3%
- -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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