Possible scenario
Diplomatic Flare Contained
45% Chance
Erdogan's accusation produces another round of public denunciations, but the Gaza truce continues in a degraded form. Israel, Hamas, Qatar, Egypt and the U.S. avoid steps that would formally terminate the cease-fire because hostage, aid and security arrangements still depend on it.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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