Possible scenario
Truce Holds Through January
45% Chance
The most likely path is that Washington and Beijing preserve the tariff pause through the January deadline while negotiators work through implementation details. Both governments have incentives to avoid a renewed tariff shock after the summit produced a limited deal.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Copper Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.9%
- Industrials +0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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