Possible scenario
Limited Deal Deepens
25% Chance
The September agreement evolves into a more concrete package before the January expiration. This would likely include selective tariff relief, Chinese purchase commitments, and clearer rules around rare earths or export licensing.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Up
- Copper Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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