Possible scenario
Friction Returns Gradually
20% Chance
The truce survives formally, but disputes over export controls, rare earths, technology licensing, or purchase targets begin to erode confidence. This path is plausible because the limited deal leaves the hardest national-security and industrial-policy questions unresolved.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Copper Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -1.1%
- Technology
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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