Possible scenario
Selloff Resumes
18% Chance
The brief futures bounce proves to be a pause rather than a reversal. Investors refocus on the scale of AI capital spending, Anthropic-related growth concerns, and the lack of near-term proof that cloud providers can earn adequate returns.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology -1.7%
- Business Services -0.4%
- Industrials -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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