Possible scenario
Contained Northern War
40% Chance
The most likely path is a renewed but geographically contained war centered on Tigray, northern Amhara, and Afar. The Ethiopian National Defense Force tries to retake seized airports while the Tigray Defense Forces defend positions and seek leverage for renewed talks.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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