Possible scenario
Ceasefire Revived
25% Chance
African Union, IGAD, Kenyan, and U.S. diplomats push both sides back toward the 2022 Pretoria framework. War-weariness, economic pressure on Addis Ababa, and Tigray's need for humanitarian access create incentives for a limited pause.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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