Possible scenario
Opposition Wins Inclusion
25% Chance
Machado's commanding lead strengthens the argument that any durable Venezuela deal needs the country's most popular opposition figure at the table. U.S. and European officials use the poll to press for a more inclusive framework tied to electoral guarantees and sanctions conditionality.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Down
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.1%
Tickers
- CVX+0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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