Possible scenario
Hardline Crackdown Returns
20% Chance
Maduro may conclude that Machado's polling lead is a threat to regime cohesion and move to neutralize her organization rather than include it. This would revive the pattern of disqualifications, arrests, and pressure on opposition infrastructure seen before and after the disputed 2024 vote.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.6%
Tickers
- -1.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.