Controlled Talks Continue

The most likely path is that Nicolás Maduro's government and U.S. negotiators keep the existing channel open while María Corina Machado remains formally excluded. Her 52%-19% polling advantage raises political costs but does not immediately change control of institutions, the electoral council, or sanctions implementation.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.