Possible scenario
Race Remains Unresolved
20% Chance
The Jewish voter swing makes the race close enough that neither side concedes on election night. Absentee ballots, affidavit ballots, and county-level canvassing determine whether Hochul or Blakeman ultimately prevails.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.