Possible scenario
Hochul Narrowly Holds
34% Chance
Kathy Hochul absorbs the loss of Jewish support but preserves enough of the Democratic base in New York City, Westchester, and upstate cities to win narrowly. Her late embrace of the federal school choice program limits further erosion among Orthodox voters without fully reversing the damage.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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