Possible scenario
Severe Carrier Damage
20% Chance
The missile strike causes significant casualties, disables core carrier functions, or forces the vessel to withdraw for repairs. The United States responds with a sustained air and naval campaign against IRGC missile, naval, and command infrastructure, creating a crisis-level regional escalation.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +7.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-3.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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