Possible scenario
Confirmed Limited Strike
40% Chance
U.S. officials confirm that an IRGC missile struck or damaged a U.S. aircraft carrier, but the ship remains operational and casualties are limited. Washington retaliates against launch sites, radar nodes, and IRGC naval assets while trying to keep the confrontation below the threshold of a declared war.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.0%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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