Possible scenario
Claim Remains Unverified
25% Chance
The IRGC claim is not substantiated by U.S. or independent maritime evidence, and the carrier continues flight operations. Markets initially react to the headline but partially reverse as satellite imagery, U.S. statements, and shipping data suggest no major damage.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.6%
- Consumer Services +0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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