Possible scenario
Saudi Retaliatory Escalation
25% Chance
Riyadh responds with strikes on Houthi missile and drone infrastructure in Yemen. This raises the likelihood of additional Houthi attempts against airports, desalination plants, or military bases, while stopping short of a full regional war.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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