Possible scenario
Eastern Oil Risk
15% Chance
Because Dammam sits in Saudi Arabia's Eastern Province, investors focus on possible spillover to Ras Tanura, Jubail, Abqaiq, and Aramco logistics corridors. Even without major damage, the market prices a clearer oil-supply risk premium.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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