Possible scenario
Contained Airport Disruption
45% Chance
Saudi air defenses and airport authorities limit the immediate fallout from the Dammam attack. Flights are gradually restored, while insurers and airlines keep a higher-risk view of eastern Saudi airspace because the strike follows Riyadh and other airport attacks.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.5%
- Energy +0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.