Possible scenario
Paxton Gains Advantage
32% Chance
Ken Paxton and Donald Trump’s allies successfully make the donation a character issue against Talarico. The Epstein association gives Republicans a simple late-campaign attack line, narrowing or reversing Talarico’s polling edge.
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.2%
- Finance +0.1%
- Healthcare -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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