Possible scenario
Selloff Extends
30% Chance
The bond rout continues as investors demand more term premium for persistent inflation, heavy Treasury issuance, and uncertainty over Federal Reserve policy. Risk assets weaken as higher discount rates pressure growth stocks, housing, utilities, and leveraged borrowers.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- Copper Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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