Possible scenario
Casualty Confusion Escalates
15% Chance
The shift from initial reports of 32 dead to an official toll of 25 may trigger public criticism if families, local officials, or media outlets dispute the manifest. The likely consequence is political pressure for transparency rather than a security or market shock.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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